The Farmers' Almanac has updated its 2026-2027 winter outlook, expanding what was originally a simple, single-label regional map into a more detailed breakdown complete with a zone table, region-by-region El Niño analysis, and an explanation of its forecasting method.
What Changed in the Update
The almanac's winter outlook divides the country into seven broad zones. In its original late-August version, the page offered only a short FAQ and a single label per region. The early-September rewrite added considerably more depth: a zone table providing three separate readings for each of the seven regions — temperature, precipitation, and snow risk — along with a dedicated analysis of how the season's expected El Niño pattern could affect each area.
The Headline Warning: "Snow, Sleet, and Surprises"
The almanac's overall message for the coming winter centers on volatility rather than a single dominant pattern. "Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow," the almanac's forecast states, adding: "Residents should be prepared for forecasts to change quickly as storms approach." The 2026-2027 outlook was prepared by Caleb Weatherbee using what the publication describes as the same core, proprietary weather formula it has relied on since its founding in 1818, first developed by founding editor David Young.
A Potentially Historic El Niño
Underpinning much of this year's forecast is an unusually strong El Niño pattern. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory predicting a very strong event through fall and winter, putting a 69% chance on an event strong enough to surpass every El Niño on record since 1950 — forecasters cautioned, however, that impacts becoming more likely at that magnitude isn't the same as being guaranteed.
Which Regions Come Out Best
According to the updated forecast, the southern Rockies emerge as the most favorably positioned region. The almanac forecasts an active storm track running from Southern California through Texas and the Gulf into the Southeast, with conditions favorable for mountain snowfall along that corridor.
Where the Update Gets Confusing
Notably, Men's Journal flagged an internal inconsistency in the Northwest section of the updated forecast. The map itself labels the region as "changeable," with unreliable snow — but the accompanying data table appears to contradict that same label: the precipitation column puts Cascade snowpack below normal, while the separate snow-risk column puts the Cascades above normal in the very same region. Montana and Wyoming, grouped in the North Central zone, are forecast for near-normal precipitation with variable conditions across the Rockies — reflecting the broader "surprises" theme the almanac has leaned into for this year's outlook.
How the Rival Old Farmer's Almanac Compares
Adding another layer of complexity, the competing Old Farmer's Almanac — a separate publication despite the similar name, dating back to 1792 — released its own updated 2026-2027 outlook on August 31, and its predictions diverge from the Farmers' Almanac in some respects. The Old Farmer's Almanac expects a mostly mild winter overall, with above-normal snowfall specifically in central New England, the Appalachians, the Intermountain West, the Pacific Northwest, and Alaska. It also identifies a corridor stretching from central New England through the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley as likely to see colder-than-normal conditions, even as much of the rest of the country trends near or above seasonal temperature norms. Notably, the Old Farmer's Almanac has reserved its most severe forecast for the upper Appalachian Mountains, predicting cold and snowy conditions for central Upstate New York, including Syracuse and Albany — while nearby New York City and cities bordering Lakes Ontario and Erie, like Rochester and Buffalo, are expected to see mild, dry conditions instead.
What Both Almanacs Agree On
Despite their differing regional details, both publications agree on one central point: the 2026-27 winter season is unlikely to be uniformly harsh across the United States, with some areas facing significantly more snow than others depending on how the season's El Niño pattern ultimately plays out.
A Note on Forecasting Methodology
It's worth noting that both almanacs' long-range winter forecasts are based substantially on historical norms, astronomical patterns, and proprietary formulas rather than the kind of near-term meteorological modeling used in short-range weather forecasting — a distinction both publications acknowledge, with the Old Farmer's Almanac describing its own outlook as "a fun tool" for forecasting rather than a precise scientific prediction. The real-time accuracy of any winter's actual weather will ultimately depend on shorter-range forecasts as the season approaches.
What's Next
With the Farmers' Almanac's 210th edition set for print release later this month, and the season's El Niño pattern still developing through the fall, both publications' forecasts are likely to face their real test once winter weather actually arrives. For the complete zone-by-zone breakdown, see the official Farmers' Almanac winter outlook.