India's energy strategy is shifting fast as refiners race to secure supply before global oil flows fully normalize. New data shows India significantly boosted its crude oil imports from Russia and the UAE in June, even as the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening following the recent US-Iran ceasefire.
Russia Remains India's Top Supplier — By a Wide Margin
The numbers underline just how dominant Russian crude has become in India's import basket. India imported an average of 2.66 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in June, through June 19, compared to 1.91 million bpd in May, according to data from maritime and commodity intelligence firm Kpler — a jump that cements Moscow's position as the country's largest oil supplier.
Analysts expect that lead to widen further before the month closes. June imports are expected to exceed 2.35 million bpd, potentially setting a record, supported by competitive discounts and steady refinery demand, according to Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager of Modelling at Kpler. He added that Russian supplies are likely to remain a cornerstone of India's import basket even after Hormuz normalizes, given favourable economics and supply security considerations.
UAE Shipments Near Record Levels Too
It isn't just Russia driving the shift. Imports from the United Arab Emirates stood at 636,000 barrels per day in June through June 19, marginally below the record 644,000 bpd imported in May. Rounding out the diversified supply picture, Venezuela emerged as India's fourth-largest crude supplier with shipments of 209,000 bpd, behind Saudi Arabia's 384,000 bpd, while imports from the United States fell sharply to just 91,000 bpd from 252,000 bpd in May.
Indian refiners have also increased purchases from the Atlantic Basin and Venezuela since March to offset tighter Gulf supplies, with Venezuelan crude imports estimated at 300,000-400,000 bpd in June, giving refiners that process heavier crude grades an important diversification option — though sanctions risk continues to cloud that route's long-term reliability.
Why Refiners Are Stockpiling Ahead of Hormuz's Reopening
The timing of this import surge is no coincidence. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz began recovering late last week after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, though the truce remains fragile, with Iranian authorities accusing Israel of violating the agreement. Given that fragility, Indian refiners appear to be hedging their bets by locking in alternative supply now rather than waiting on a recovery that could still falter.
Different fuels are expected to normalize at very different speeds. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to provide the quickest relief to India's LPG supplies, while crude oil and LNG imports are likely to see a more gradual normalisation, since the country has already adapted to months of disruption through diversification and alternative supply routes. The impact of the disruption varied sharply across fuels, with LPG emerging as the most affected commodity, while crude and LNG proved relatively resilient thanks to alternative sourcing and bypass infrastructure.
Ritolia also cautioned against expecting an immediate flood of Gulf barrels. He expects the initial phase of reopening to focus on clearing stranded cargoes and restoring shipping flows before Gulf producers materially increase exports, calling a full Hormuz reopening "a major milestone for global energy markets" whose impact on India will vary significantly across commodities.
India's Bigger Energy Picture
This import pattern fits into a longer-running trend. India, the world's third-largest oil importer, has steadily increased its reliance on discounted Russian barrels since Western sanctions made them widely available following the Ukraine war. For ongoing data and analysis on global crude flows and energy markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration remains a leading, authoritative resource for tracking international oil trade trends.
What Lies Ahead
As the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, the key question is whether India's appetite for Russian and UAE crude eases back toward pre-conflict norms — or whether the discounts and supply security on offer keep Moscow firmly entrenched as India's top supplier well beyond the current crisis. With the ceasefire still fragile and clearing of stranded cargoes only just beginning, refiners are likely to keep hedging their bets for at least the next several weeks.