Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned Friday, September 11, that the mechanisms which helped cushion oil prices during the early months of the US-Iran war have now been exhausted, raising the risk of further price spikes in the months ahead.

What Wirth Said

Speaking at a University of Texas at Austin energy conference, Wirth said the buffers that limited crude price increases earlier in the conflict have been "played out." He explained that since the war began in late February, countries had released crude from their stockpiles, and the US had eased restrictions on sanctioned oil stored aboard vessels at sea — both measures that helped absorb the initial supply shock. With those cushions now depleted, Wirth struck a notably cautious tone: "It's harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly. I think the risks remain to the upside over the next few months."

Diesel Hits a Historic Milestone

The warning landed the same week the average price of diesel in the US hit $6 per gallon for the first time, on Thursday, September 10 — a milestone driven by the combined effect of the Iran war and separate Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, both of which have squeezed global fuel supply simultaneously from different directions.

Oil Prices Back Above $100

Wirth's comments came as oil prices jumped back over $100 a barrel this week. Brent futures for November 2026 delivery were trading around $104.4 a barrel at the time of his remarks, and the benchmark has now gained more than 50% since the Middle East conflict began in late February — underscoring just how dramatically the war has reshaped global energy pricing over roughly six and a half months.

A Second Front Squeezing Supply

Beyond the Iran conflict itself, Wirth noted that the Trump administration had held discussions with Ukraine regarding its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and said Chevron has since seen fewer disruptions affecting its own operations — a detail suggesting some diplomatic effort is underway to manage the compounding effects of two separate conflicts both weighing on global fuel supply at the same time. Chevron operates Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield, giving the company direct exposure to the broader regional supply dynamics Wirth was describing.

Chevron's Venezuela Expansion Continues Regardless

Even amid the broader supply turmoil, Wirth confirmed Chevron is pressing ahead with its Venezuela expansion, planning to fund a $7 billion investment entirely through cash generated by its three existing joint ventures in the country, rather than bringing in outside capital. "We'll live entirely within the means of those ventures' ability to generate cash, not bring in cash from the outside," Wirth said. Last week, Chevron signed new contract terms with the Venezuelan government to expand into two additional oil areas, targeting more than a doubling of output to roughly 600,000 barrels per day by 2031 — a notable long-term bet on Venezuelan production even as near-term global oil markets remain highly volatile.

Market and Investor Reaction

Retail sentiment around Chevron (CVX) on Stocktwits remained broadly "bullish" following Wirth's comments, reflecting investor confidence that continued elevated oil prices — however disruptive for consumers — stand to benefit major producers like Chevron even as the broader macroeconomic picture grows more uncertain.

The Bigger Picture

Wirth's warning adds a notably direct, industry-insider voice to the growing chorus of concern over how the Iran war's economic fallout could continue deepening rather than resolving. With the initial stockpile-release and sanctioned-oil buffers now spent, and a parallel supply squeeze from the Ukraine-Russia conflict compounding the pressure, energy markets appear to have fewer readily available tools left to soften the next price shock, should one arrive. For continuing coverage, see the full Reuters report.

With Wirth explicitly framing the risks as skewed "to the upside" for the coming months, his comments suggest the recent run of elevated diesel and crude prices may prove to be a floor rather than a peak — a sobering signal for consumers and businesses already grappling with the war's mounting economic toll.