Crude oil prices climbed for a third consecutive session on Monday, August 10, as uncertainty over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive market sentiment. Brent crude futures for October delivery gained around 1.1% to trade near $84.46 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for September advanced about 0.8% to roughly $78.84 a barrel.
Mixed Signals From Iran on Hormuz
The rise comes amid conflicting signals from Tehran. Iran said over the weekend that talks with Oman on establishing a monitored shipping route through the strategic waterway were nearing an agreement, but cautioned that any arrangement would not lead to an immediate reopening of the strait. At the same time, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not currently engaged in direct talks with the US to end the war or reopen Hormuz, even as Washington has asserted a deal is close.
Iran has also rejected direct negotiations with the US for now, citing what it describes as breaches of the interim peace deal reached in June, while maintaining a set of core demands: an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for war damages.
Attacks Continue Despite Diplomatic Progress
Adding to the uncertainty, fresh attacks have continued even as diplomatic talks proceed. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery, while a tanker operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company came under attack in the Hormuz corridor over the weekend. Reports over recent sessions have also pointed to multiple vessels being targeted while transiting the strait, underscoring that the waterway remains far from secure even as negotiations advance.
What Experts and Officials Are Saying
President Trump has signaled patience despite mounting pressure on the US to broker a resolution with Tehran, a notable shift in tone from earlier in the conflict when the administration pushed for more aggressive timelines. Market watchers note that oil prices remain highly sensitive to any headline on the Iran-Oman shipping protocol, since a credible framework to monitor and secure tanker traffic through Hormuz could return millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude to global markets and sharply pressure prices lower.
That sensitivity was on display just days earlier: crude posted a more than 7% weekly decline even after rising about 1% in a single session, as traders whipsawed between optimism over the potential Iran-Oman deal and fresh reports of attacks on vessels transiting the strait. Analysts describe this as a market still pricing in a meaningful "war premium" — elevated prices reflecting the risk of supply disruption — that could unwind quickly if a durable security arrangement for Hormuz materializes, or spike again if attacks escalate.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, historically carrying roughly a fifth of global daily oil shipments. Since the conflict escalated earlier this year, tanker flows through the strait have been repeatedly disrupted, contributing to some of the sharpest single-session price swings seen in the oil market in years. Multiple countries have held talks on securing safe passage through the route, and OPEC+ has weighed a potential output increase, though analysts note additional supply is unlikely to meaningfully offset Hormuz-related disruptions in the near term.
What to Watch This Week
Traders are likely to stay focused on any further developments in the Iran-Oman shipping talks, additional reports of tanker or infrastructure attacks, and any shift in the Trump administration's posture toward direct negotiations with Tehran. Given how sharply prices have swung on individual headlines in recent weeks, volatility is expected to remain elevated until a clearer picture emerges on whether the strait can be reliably reopened. For live crude oil price tracking, see Trading Economics' crude oil data.
For now, the market's message is clear: until Hormuz sees a durable, verifiable resolution, oil prices will likely keep reacting sharply to every twist in the Iran-Oman-US diplomatic dance.