Brent crude dipped back below $100 a barrel Friday, but oil remains up more than 13% for the week after briefly surging above triple digits for the first time in two months — as a new front opened in the Middle East conflict following Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea.
The Numbers
Brent crude traded near $100 a barrel, easing from Thursday's close of $100.65 — up 7% on the day and 36.49% over the past month. West Texas Intermediate was trading near $91, after closing Thursday around $92.36, up 6.37% on the day and 31.31% over the trailing month. Both benchmarks are now up more than 30% from pre-conflict levels seen earlier this month, and roughly 40%-45% higher than the same time a year ago.
What's Driving the Latest Surge
The spike traces directly to Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, with the Iran-backed militant group saying the strikes were intended to enforce a newly announced blockade of Saudi ports. The attacks have raised fears of further disruption to regional shipping, with Asian buyers reportedly weighing longer, more expensive alternative routes to avoid the area entirely. Adding to supply concerns, Kazakhstan suspended crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal following drone attacks, further tightening the broader market outlook.
Trump's Warning
President Trump warned that the U.S. would hold Iran directly responsible for any future Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, threatening both Tehran and the Yemen-based militants with "major military punishment." He told Axios he was "considering a massive attack" against Iran — remarks that came against the backdrop of an already escalating conflict that has seen the U.S. death toll rise further over the preceding weekend, following the killing of two U.S. service members and a subsequent Iranian decision to call off the interim peace deal.
Is $120 Oil Realistic?
The question of a return to $120 is no longer purely hypothetical. Brent's 52-week intraday high already sits at $120.88, reached on April 30, 2026, meaning the market has already tested that level once during this conflict. Kpler analysts have said crude oil at $100 per barrel is "back on the agenda," reflecting how quickly sentiment has shifted from earlier hopes of de-escalation. Whether the market pushes meaningfully past $100 toward the $120 territory again likely depends on two factors: whether the Houthi blockade of Saudi ports intensifies or spreads further, and whether Trump follows through on his threatened strikes against Iran. Given that oil has already climbed more than 30% from pre-conflict levels in just the past few weeks, a continued escalation scenario could plausibly retest — or exceed — the April highs, though a swift de-escalation could just as easily pull prices back toward the $80s.
A Volatile, Whipsaw Market
The current spike is only the latest chapter in what's been an extraordinarily volatile year for crude. Brent's 52-week range spans from an intraday low of $58.66 in mid-December 2025 to that $120.88 April high — a swing of more than double the low, illustrating just how sensitive the market remains to each twist in the ongoing conflict. Some Gulf nations have already begun investing in pipeline infrastructure specifically designed to bypass Strait of Hormuz chokepoints, part of a broader, multi-year effort to reduce the region's vulnerability to exactly this kind of supply shock — though those projects remain years from meaningfully changing the market's near-term dynamics.
What's Next
With Trump threatening further military action, the Houthi blockade of Saudi ports still active, and Kazakhstan's pipeline suspension adding an additional supply constraint, traders are bracing for continued volatility into next week. Markets will be watching closely for the American Petroleum Institute's weekly crude inventory report and July PMI figures for further signals, though any material escalation in the conflict is likely to overshadow that routine data and keep oil prices elevated — with a retest of the $120 level a live possibility if the situation deteriorates further.