Oil Prices Rally Over 6%: Brent Crude Nears $109 as Houthis Advance Towards Key Red Sea Chokepoint

Oil prices surged more than 6% this week, with Brent crude trading near $108 a barrel — putting it on track for its biggest weekly gain since July — after Iran-backed Houthi militants advanced toward a critical global shipping chokepoint in the Red Sea.

What Triggered the Surge

Houthi rebels captured the strategic Yemeni port of Mokha, along with Mayun Island, positioning the group closer to the narrow points of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait — a waterway through which roughly 10% of global oil supplies flow. Brent crude jumped as much as 4.12% to $105.4 a barrel following the news, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 4.29% to $100.20, breaking through the psychologically significant $100 level for the first time since May.

Why Mokha Matters So Much

Sasha Foss, energy analyst at CSC Commodities, a division of Marex, told The National: "The advance of the Houthi rebels, capturing key strategic locations such as Mokha and the Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb strait are frightening the oil market." Mokha's location is particularly significant because it sits closer to the strait than the Houthis' previous strongholds, allowing the group to "project its disruptive capabilities further south towards the narrowest points of the waterway," according to RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft.

Two Chokepoints Now Under Threat Simultaneously

The escalation compounds an already severe supply crisis: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid the ongoing US-Iran war, forcing major producers to rely on alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has been shifting crude exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, shipping roughly 3.5 million barrels per day through that route since April — but Yanbu-bound tankers must still transit Bab al-Mandeb to reach Asian markets, meaning the Houthi advance directly threatens the very workaround Saudi Arabia has relied on to bypass the Hormuz blockage.

Direct Attacks on Saudi Tankers

Beyond the territorial advance, Iran-aligned Houthis said they had struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, according to Investing.com, an escalation that drew sharp criticism from US officials. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at an ASEAN summit in the Philippines, said of Iran's stated "eye for an eye" policy: "The President's policy is a head for an eye — honestly. That's what it's going to be. They're paying a very heavy price for the things they're doing." Trump himself, speaking at a rally in Georgia, suggested Iran wants to make a deal but "they're not ready," adding: "every time they make a deal they want to change it and everything."

A Maritime Embargo and Rerouting Costs

The Houthis had earlier announced a maritime embargo specifically targeting Saudi-linked vessels attempting to transit Bab al-Mandeb. Several Saudi crude tankers bound for India and China have already altered course in response to Houthi warnings. Vessels seeking to avoid the strait entirely face costly detours around southern Africa, which lengthen voyages and significantly increase freight costs — a workaround that becomes progressively less viable the more territory the Houthis control along the strait's approaches.

Ongoing Dangers to Shipping

The threat to maritime traffic extends beyond the Bab al-Mandeb corridor. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that two ships were struck by unidentified projectiles west of Khasab, Oman, on September 10 — a reminder that vessels attempting to transit even the Hormuz approaches continue facing constant risk of attack, with some tankers reportedly sailing with their transponders switched off to evade detection.

Tightening Global Supply Beyond the Middle East

Adding further pressure to the market, a recent pickup in crude purchases by China has tightened global supply-demand balances even before accounting for the latest Middle East disruption. The International Energy Agency separately reported that global oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July, extending earlier draws, at an average daily rate suggesting sustained global supply tightness independent of the current Red Sea escalation.

Diplomatic Efforts Continue in Parallel

Even as the military situation escalates, diplomatic channels remain active: top diplomats from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council were scheduled to meet their Iranian counterpart, in a push led by Oman, to continue seeking a path toward de-escalation — though the timing underscores just how far apart the military and diplomatic tracks of this conflict have diverged.

What Analysts Are Watching Next

RBC's Helima Croft warned that "a resumption of a full-blown Saudi-Houthi war would be a potential catalyst for our high oil price scenario coming to fruition" — a scenario that would combine the existing Hormuz blockage with a fully contested Bab al-Mandeb corridor, effectively squeezing Gulf oil exports from two directions simultaneously. Analysts have previously warned that Brent could surge past $100 and stay there for an extended period; that threshold has now been decisively breached, with some forecasts suggesting prices could test $110 or higher if the current escalation continues without a diplomatic breakthrough.

What's Next

With Brent now trading near $108 and Houthi forces continuing to press toward the strait's narrowest points, oil markets are likely to remain highly volatile pending developments on both the military front in Yemen and the parallel Gulf-Iran diplomatic track. For continuing live oil market coverage, see the full Bloomberg report via Energy Connects.