SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a publicly traded company after Tuesday's market close, giving Wall Street its first real chance to judge whether the profits from Elon Musk's satellite internet business, Starlink, can realistically sustain his aggressive, multibillion-dollar push into artificial intelligence.

What Analysts Are Expecting

Analysts expect SpaceX to report second-quarter capital expenditure of nearly $14.05 billion, with the AI segment alone accounting for roughly $10.2 billion of that total — a more than sixfold increase from the same period last year, according to Visible Alpha data. That would follow a first quarter in which AI spending already consumed $7.72 billion, about three-quarters of the company's total capex for that period. Analysts expect the AI business itself to nearly triple revenue to $2.33 billion for the quarter, up sharply from 12.5% growth in the prior period, while Starlink's growth is expected to accelerate to 52.6% from 31.6%.

The Central Tension

Musk has pitched AI as SpaceX's future growth engine, with ambitions that extend well beyond simply renting out compute capacity to other companies — including developing frontier AI models, consumer and enterprise software, and eventually even data centers in space. But until the AI business and Starship launch operations can stand on their own financially, Musk plans to use Starlink's profits to bankroll both ventures — a strategy critics argue is unsustainable. Will Rhind, founder and CEO of GraniteShares, which offers ETFs tied to SpaceX's stock performance, put the tension bluntly: "Starlink is executing beautifully, but it cannot single-handedly fund a $30 billion annualized AI capex program."

Starlink Remains the Financial Engine

Despite the strain from AI spending, Starlink continues to be SpaceX's strongest source of both revenue and operating profit. The satellite internet business is expected to generate roughly $3.82 billion in revenue for the quarter with an operating profit near $1.42 billion, up from $1.19 billion in the first quarter. Starlink closed the first quarter with 10.3 million subscribers — roughly double the level from a year earlier — even as average revenue per user continues sliding.

The Bottom-Line Impact

Taken together, analysts project SpaceX will report quarterly revenue of nearly $6.93 billion but post an operating loss of roughly $1.55 billion, as the surge in AI-related investment weighs heavily on overall profitability despite Starlink's genuine strength.

A Stock Already Under Pressure

SpaceX shares have pulled back sharply since the company's $85.7-86 billion IPO in June, as investors have increasingly questioned whether a valuation of roughly 77 times expected revenue can be justified. The stock faces additional potential pressure from the expiration of its post-IPO lockup period beginning August 6, which could release as many as 911.5 million shares onto the market — more than the company's current public float — with a further 455.8 million shares potentially becoming available if certain price conditions are met. Notably, Musk's own stake and those of a small group of insiders remain locked until mid-2027, meaning the CEO's own shares won't be part of any near-term selling pressure.

The Tesla Merger Question Looms

Beyond the numbers themselves, investors will be listening closely for any comments from Musk on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla, following a media report last week that executives at both companies had discussed the possibility. Any commentary on that front could prove just as market-moving as the underlying financial results.

What's Next

With Tuesday's report marking SpaceX's first real test of public-market scrutiny, and the August 6 lockup expiration looming just days later, the results are likely to shape investor sentiment heading into a particularly consequential stretch for the stock. Whether Wall Street comes away reassured that Starlink's cash flow can sustainably fund Musk's AI ambitions — or more convinced that the current spending pace is unsustainable — will likely determine how the stock trades through the lockup expiration and beyond.